Looks like our simulation might end soon?
The Doomsday argument by Alexey Turchin
If both DA and SA are true then
we live in a simulation and it will be
switched off or have existential
If we are in a simulation, we don’t know
when it began. It could have been as late
as e.g., the year 2000. If the total simulation is short, and we assume that we
are roughly in the middle of it, it could
end very soon.
2) Aranyosi: DA and SA cancel each
other out (it may be it a result from his
for all possible civilizations
1) ALL possible civilizations are very
likely to go extinct before reaching a
“posthuman” stage (which is unlikely).
2) WE are almost certainly living in a
• A lot of the simulations will presumably be created for the purpose of estimating the probability of existential
risks (in order to solve Fermi paradox and probability of meeting other AI in
space), and may be dominating class of the simulations.
• If so we are likely to find ourselves near x-risk events and in position to
influence them (true).
• If I prove that I am in a simulation it could be switched off.
• Or we go extinct in the simulation or it will be switched off after we escape risks.